bleungberg.com

So, Aung San Suu Kyi is on trial again…and like clockwork, all the news networks are suddenly back on her trail - as if she’d been off backpacking in between her various hunger strikes and court appearances.

Still, one shouldn’t complain - especially when compared to the spineless United Nations who are pretty much hopeless in dealing with any conflict and standing up for the weak and the dispossessed.

And talking of Aung San Suu Kyi, the BBC has been broadcasting reports filed by one of their correspondents inside Burma, and whose identity cannot be revealed due to a ban on foreign journalists by the military junta.

That worked up to a point when the pictures were fuzzy and phone line was poor. But the cover was blown during the Six O’clock News today when the mystery correspondent filed the report on an astonishing good phone line…one which was so clear that anybody could clearly identify his regional accent.

For regular viewers of the BBC’s current affairs output, it’s pretty obvious who the correspondent is…
The guy is fairly distinctive too, and has absolutely no chance blending in with the locals, let alone passing himself off as backpacker.
We wish he and his producers well.

Years ago, Bleungberg received these words of wisdom from a British bookmaker: “Never ever back an odds-on favourite.”

And true to form, Bleungberg has never betrayed this sage advice - however tempted he might have been during the intervening period.

The bookmaker argued that such certainties do not exist, and are merely there to tempt and trap punters into gambling away their hard-earned cash, and no bets attract bigger punts than odds-on chances.

And prior to Saturday, Bleungberg has been fortunate enough to witness numerous almighty odds-on flops down the years: Portugal in the Euro 2004 final, Martina Hingis against Jelena Dokic on Day 1 at Wimbledon 1999, Hillary Clinton before the emergence of Obama, Big Brown at the 2008 Belmont Stakes, and, upon reflection, Samantha Janus in the 1991 Eurovision Song Contest.

Looks like Mr Bookmaker had a point!

And it was to the middle leg of the American Triple Crown and the Eurovision Song Contest which captivated Bleungberg on Saturday night, for, both events included two of the heaviest odds-on favourites ever.

And in the space of five minutes, both ‘Alexes’ had led from start to finish to emerge triumphant in two of the most competitive events during the year.

First up was Eurovision and the 10-11 chance Alexander Rybak whose ditty little number, ‘Fairytale’, led from start to finish to win by a country mile in a 25-runner field in an event which is notoriously difficult to find the winner.

Within minutes, the Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra had also led start to finish to land the prestigious Preakness Stakes, and in beating 12 male rivals as the 1-5 favourite, became the first filly to win the second-most important race in America for 85 years.

Rachel Alexandra’s victory was absolutely incredible, and made all the more memorable by the Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird’s unrelenting and ultimately fruitless surge towards the finish line despite being tailed right off at one stage.

Similarly, Norway’s landslide win is a rarity in Moscow given how much bloc-voting has ruined the song contest since the expansion of the event to include former Soviet republics.

‘Fairytale’ is said to have cost the British bookmakers £5m, and no doubt many shrewd punters would have profited likewise courtesy of the wonder filly at Pimlico in Britain (though she was sent off the 9-5 chance on track in Maryland).

That said, Bleungberg has not changed his mind with regards to odds on favourites.

For every Norways and Rachel Alexandras, there are far more who would meet a grisly end as is the norm in Eurovision and in the Triple Crown series.

What happened between 23.10 BST and 23.20 BST were strictly one-offs.

Simply, no two events have produced more shock winners than the ESC or the Triple Crown.

Think Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Birdstone, Da’Tara, Giacomo, Jazil….

Bleungberg has greeted the ‘defeat’ of the Tamil Tigers with mixed feelings.

First and foremost, normality might now return to Sri Lanka. However, it is highly doubtful that the death of its spiritual/cult leader Velupillai Prabhakaran would also mean an end of years of bloodshed - as has been boasted by the president of Sri Lanka (below).

Yes, many argue that the ruthless Prabhakaran was lynch pin of Tamil Tigers, and without his highly centralised leadership, the rebels will simply disintegrate and fracture into smaller units or even, disappear completely.

What is certain - as is the case in every other conflict - is that those who have suffered and are now in the minority, will have been radicalised and that disparate men and women will emerge to avenge their loss against the government and the Sinhalese population.

That potentially makes the job of monitoring these disparate groups even more difficult, and the likelihood of an upsurge in violent, sporadic and unpredictable suicide attacks upon the defenceless locals.

The events over the past weekend also opens up a potential front-line for this long-running conflict - China.

The Sri Lankan government has made no secret of the fact that had it not been for China’s supply of arms - in return for granting the PRC unfettered access and upgrading of port cities - his army would and could not have defeated the rebels.

This, in our mind, makes China a legitimate target for would-be Tamil suicide bombers.

My oh my, with Muslims already upset and threatening unrest due to its psuedo-religious cleansing of their population in the Xinjiang Uyghur, the PRC could now find itself under attack from an even more viscious, persistent and deadly enemy who are hellbent on revenge. AND on foreign soil. Those so-called ’string of pearls’ commercial ports in the Indian Ocean must now be a long-term target for the regrouped Tamil Tigers, and thus begin an almighty diplomatic struggle for the Chinese.

For once, the potent Chinese navy might now get a chance to venture beyond the South China Sea…

Kate Hoey MP.

1999 - 2001 - Sports Minister and ally of Tony Blair.

2001 - 2008 - sidelines by her fellow MPs for constantly rebelling against the party.
2008 - still ostracised by the party for being pro-Tory and was even appointed sports advisor to bumbling mayor, Boris Johnson, attracting widespread criticism from colleagues and constituents alike.

2009 - championed by fellow backbenchers and opposition parties for daring to stand up to the hapless Speaker of the House, Michael Martin over the MPs’ expenses scandal.

The Daily Mail has described Ms Hoey as ‘courageous, free-thinking and principled’ back in 2008.
In light of recent events which have engulfed the British Parliament, Bleungberg will second these words for the MP for Vauxhall.

Speedy cyclist Tom Boonen has been tested positive for cocaine again - and for the second time within a year. The sprinter blamed the relapse on the intense competitions and on abstinence and looks set to be sidelined for a while or maybe even a spell locked up in jaill. In addition, he revealed that he’d started drinking again.

Across the border in France, tennis prodigy Richard Gaqsuet has also been tested positive for cocaine and if found guilty, the 22-year-old could be exiled from the sport for up to two years.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of taking cocaine, Bleungberg takes the view that neither has committed what one would consider serious mistakes which warrant lengthy bans for, unlike EPO or other performance-enhancing drugs, cocaine makes no difference whatsoever to a cyclist or tennis player’s performance.

Besides, both sports have some of the most rigorous drug-testing programmes around in conjunction with WADA, that it would be naive to think that either man had set out to cheat the system for personal gains.

Both Boonen and Gasquet have been around long enough in their respective fields - and witnessed far too many of their colleagues forced into early retirement in disgrace through doping - that Bleungberg has no doubt that personal issues got in the way here.

For Boonen, it’s entirely plausible that abstinence and the level of intense competition has pushed him to the brink and the only way to ease the pressure was through cocaine.
As the dominant sprinter in the world prior to his suspension last year, Boonen now finds himself threatened and challenged by Britain’s Mark Cavendish and the evergreen Alexandro Petacchi who are both snapping at his heals for the rainbow jersey. This, for someone with a healthy ego and in a country where he is feted as a national hero, must be a terrible burden to shoulder and it’s not a huge surprise that he has turned to recreational drugs for relief.
Similarly, Gasquet has had to endure the tag ‘prodigy’ since the age of nine which must be a terrible burden for a mentally fragile sportsman, who whilst immensely talented, is often found wanting at the business end of tournaments, for example during last year’s Wimbledon 4th round match against Andy Murray.

Of course, the meteoric rise of Murray, Novak Djokovic, fellow countrymen Jo-Wilfrd Tsonga and Gilles Simon have only piled pressure upon the male version of Amelie Mauresmo, especially during Roland Garros.

Bleungberg’s views on both these men have not changed - both are superb and immensely talented athletes. Gasquet, for example, is simply a joy to watch and we will never forget his epic encounter in beating Andy Roddick at the US Open a few years ago - against a hostile home crowd and with cramp in one leg. We thought that Gasquet had turned things round and answered all his critics then and, for a while, things looked promising. He couldn’t quite build on that and now, we will just have to wait and see whether his exile away from tennis will do him a world of good. We sincerely hope so, and wishes them well in their periods away from their respective sports.